A decade following the UK entered into a hasty referendum that polarised the country and unleashed chaos, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and citizens drifted into Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is ready.
That represents the warning from two prominent journalists from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially tense and seismic public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can build support very quickly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our region remains very unstable."
Book Publication Aims to Stir Debate
The duo have examined the governmental, financial and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the topic with a series of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts all parties, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose results have remained undefined because then you land with an highly polarised community where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the people who have won lack clarity quite what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue this point is imminent, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there could be a referendum.
Lack of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has obscured the absence of substantive discussion, said the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has gone on in academia but hardly any politicians or campaigners want to engage with even the essentials. As an example, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, neither author supports unification or the existing arrangement. They writes two pieces that aim for objectivity in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, marshalling economic and social figures, previous instances and structural examples.
Debates encompass national emblems, duties, medical care, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to inform and stimulate discussion.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there is still lacking a discussion," commented the writer. "Debate indicates an acknowledgement of the notion that there may exist valid points on either side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where voters claim they prefer unity but reject greater financial contributions or introducing a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland should establish what the proposal from nationalist groups is aside from just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride thinks a national vote in his generation is probable and that it might occur suddenly. "It is possible just a mad or a bad or a feckless official who declares: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have reasonable, valid points, he stated. "One side will succeed here and somebody will in the end lose but each side has got something to gain from the opposing positions."
Appeal for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster must participate in the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish question."
