Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the tension sparked by the introduction of a new comprehensive peace framework for resolving the conflict appeared – momentarily – to have been defused. A American diplomat spoke of "substantial progress" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its countermove: a renewed assault of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Peace Talks and Military Action
The succession of contrasting events captured the harsh reality of the outgoing year. By day, negotiation efforts are fought: positive announcements are issued from multiple capitals. Significant resources is devoted on managing specific proposals. By night, Russian leadership brutally reminds the world that, for them, war remains the primary tool for achieving "peace".
Nocturnal Warfare
As military strikes progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's exposure was revealed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor missile launches from across the border, a ability provided through up-to-date information. From vantage locations, military aircraft that had been dispatched to intercept incoming aerial threats roared overhead – sophisticated military planes delivered to Ukraine by NATO members.
Shortly after, Kyiv's missile defense thundered: several firings deployed against a Russian ballistic missile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, presumably provided by allied countries. Every firing jolts you unexpectedly, rattling buildings. The moment of terror quickly gives way to resigned acknowledgment: maybe the hostile projectile won't hit its mark this time, preventing destruction from devastation and additional electricity failures.
Continuous Dangers
Not long after, a heavy machine gun fired at a aerial vehicle close by, part of a rapid response unit – almost certainly Western-made equipment. Unfortunately, the bullets missed the enemy aircraft – it continued its flight toward its target.
Periodically, this continued until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the morning news: multiple fatalities, damage and utility failures in multiple buildings as a result of the night's assault. As customarily, everyone still maintained normal activities – experiencing conflict. But those entire period demonstrated Ukraine's vital need on Western support – a reliance that regional partners are demonstrably unable to substitute in the near term.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The comprehensive proposal from US administration provoked deep reactions, controversy and deep concern – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after earlier high-level meetings and multilateral gatherings.
Every new approach from Washington follows the consistent cycle: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, succeeds in resisting. They stabilise the situation but never actually secure success. This cycle will, no doubt, persist.
Tactical Assessments
It is easy to blame certain parties of repeatedly advocating Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. US administration functions according to a assumption well known to international relations experts: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have lost on the battlefield. The White House assumes that it is impossible to pressure the Kremlin to abandon the territory that it presently holds in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The problem is that while acknowledging this situation, Washington does nothing to deter Moscow, through words or deeds, from believing that the current condition will not change more in its favour in the near future.
Divergent Views
Therefore, Moscow is convinced that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its supporters are nearing depletion. Their motivation to accept conditions that does not give them the maximum possible gain is close to zero. There may be numerous efforts to stop fighting, but they will persist as long as Russia's leader remains supremely confident in the outcome.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still hold out, gradually sacrificing people and territory but avoiding a entire defensive failure until conditions improve in its benefit.
Present Conditions
Objectively, there are no actual prerequisites for a truce. Now, subjective factors are becoming relevant: political desires to negotiate peace and achieve global acclaim, and Kyiv's twin challenges – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the national cause against any plan Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their focus does not move to domestic problems. And although their task will now be much harder after recent developments, it remains quite doubtful that this will modify their basic position.
These two forces are guiding negotiations.
Summary and Prospects
It took a just a single week to terminate the 28 points of the current initiative. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by US administration, resistance by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with calming attempts of representatives, and finally, recent disclosures, all served their function.
While new proposals based on established approaches are approaching, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist diplomatic offensives from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and reflect particular unwillingness to change the course of events, if they maintain solidarity and enhance their military capacity at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the foreseeable future, mainly require ongoing international assistance.
